When do you think rides will go?

[Burniel]

Put a year to when each of the 8 rollercoasters at Alton Towers will be either destroyed or SBNO. Nobody is expected to be correct, this is just a bit of fun, but some reasoning would be nice.

My predictions:
Sonic Spinball - 2016
The SEGA contract will run out at the end of 2016, and Merlin will get rid.

Runway Mine Train - 2018
Will hopefully go in a few years time to make way for SW 9 or 10

The Smiler - 2020
Quite simply, the smiler will crumble before it's taken down. At some point in 2020, after 7 years of operating, it will completely break. A death trap waiting to happen.

Air - 2025
A great coaster, but will disappear soon after it's 20th, deemed not to fit the Forbidden Valley and that it has now become too rough

Rita - 2030
Rita will stay for a while, but will need to be upgraded due to the simplicity of it.

TH13TEEN - 2035
It's hard to say, but I think it will stay until we have some other freefall drop coasters that outdo it. But, as it's just approaching it's 4th birthday, it is not time to say goodbye yet.

Oblivion - 2040
Oblivion will be allowed a 40th anniversary before it is decided that a dive machine this basic needs to be upgraded.

Nemesis - 2050
The beast should comfortably see her 50th birthday, before they will have to do something with her. Yes, we will riot, but all good things come to an end.

[lewis97]

Well considering that, to my knowledge, no B&M coasters have been removed due to their age, I think Air, Oblivion and Nemesis will all have some of the longest life-spans of coasters at the park. When the park removes Air and Oblivion they will lose two world's firsts, and by that time they will be struggling even more to produce a unique and original ride. Therefore they will aim to keep them for as long as possible, but I think Air will be the first to go as it is the most troubled out of the three B&Ms.

I think you have been too harsh suggesting that The Smiler will only last 6/7 years. Admittedly, it's not a perfect coaster and it will probably be one of the most demanding coasters to maintain, but it is an incredibly large investment for Towers/Merlin, and so it'll stay until the finances say otherwise.

On the other hand, I think you've over predicted how long Rita will last, as in my opinion it'll be the first of the main 6 coasters to go. It's troubled by technical issues on an almost daily basis, and when you compare this to The Smiler, this is probably more of a nuisance for the park (although when The Smiler fails it likes to do it as catastrophically as possible). Furthermore, it's generally the coaster we as enthusiasts struggle to justify it's existence at the park, with no real theme and it's fairly generic ride experience. It simply doesn't fit into the park's aspirations to provide immersive and world first experiences.

[rhino18]

The main 6 will last FOREVER. Nemesis, will probably go first due to it being the oldest, but all 3 B&Ms will end up being relocated, just you wait. 

Air - 2025
A great coaster, but will disappear soon after it's 20th, deemed not to fit the Forbidden Valley and that it has now become too rough

Air? Rough? What planet are you on.....

[lf2001]

Sonic Spinball - 2016 as the Sega contract will end, as you've already said.

Mine Train - 2020, I think it could be replaced by another family coaster, maybe a re-theme of Katanga Canyon? Then the new coaster would have the theme of the new area.

Smiler - 2030 - Even though it breaks down a lot, I still think it'll stay for some years, but then eventually it'll end up breaking down altogether and it'll then close.

Air - 2035 - Like Ilovecoasters has said, it will become rough over the years, and I'm thinking it'll be replaced, by something that actually fits in with the theme of Forbidden Valley.

Rita - 2020 - Due to it breaking down possibly every time I've been, it won't stay much longer.

TH13TEEN - 2035 - I think 13 will last quite a while, but when bigger rides start opening at the park over the years it could come unpopular.

Oblivion - 2035 - Again, I think it will be eventually replaced. I reckon around this time it'll need quite a bit of work doing to it, and would be quite rough.

And finally, Nemesis - 2040 - Expecting this to last for a while, but it will eventually close.

[Burniel]

The main 6 will last FOREVER. Nemesis, will probably go first due to it being the oldest, but all 3 B&Ms will end up being relocated, just you wait. 

Air - 2025
A great coaster, but will disappear soon after it's 20th, deemed not to fit the Forbidden Valley and that it has now become too rough

Air? Rough? What planet are you on.....

I'm on the planet where rides age, what planet are you on?

[rhino18]

^Air will never get rough! 

But on a serious note, in 12 years from now, I doubt that Air will become that rough. By that time, it'll be 22 years old, a similar age to what Nemesis is now. Nemesis is getting slightly rough, but nowhere near uncomfortable and Nemesis' trains put FAR more strain onto the track, than Air's trains do.

[Burniel]

Look, I've never been on air, so I won't argue my point any further. What I do know is that it doesn't fit the theme of forbidden valley and that some people believe it is rougher that 10 years ago. I think we can all safely say that air will go before nemesis.

[rhino18]

I really don't think most people on here will believe Air will go before Nemesis, which is 8 years older. If you have been on both Nemesis and Air, which you haven't, you will find that Nemesis - by quite some margin - is the rougher one.

[Burniel]

Let the poll decide

[rhino18]

^I'll get voting then. 

[Burniel]

Looking back, I did overdo Rita a bit. Sometime in the 2020s is my new bet

[rhino18]

^C'mon really?

[Burniel]

^C'mon really?

You put a date on it then

[Themeparksandy1981]

I think the first coaster to go will be Spinball, not down to how big the queue is but the park lacks a coaster for children under 1.2m. If CBeebies land works out a good investment for the park I can see it being built bigger on Adventure Land's area with a new coaster and a couple of flat rides.

I can see Rita going next as like many have said it doesn't fit into the theme and like Spinball it's not a SW. I think this is also why there's not been any flat rides added to the area as I guess they like to build a new coaster here for the park's 40th birthday. 

I can't see any of the SW leaving unless the park run out of space to build new coasters.

[RedStar98]

Just my opinions:
Runaway Mine Train- 2017- It has been dwindling in popularity over the last couple of years, and it is getting a little old.
Sonic Spinball- 2017/18- I think that a another new retheming after the end of the contract will not be overly successful and it will be removed, potentially for a similar family ride.
The Smiler- 2022- Although it's only new, it is not the most reliable, there have already been a couple of incidents and is difficult to run and manage. There will come a point when its simply better to close it.
Rita- 2026- breaks down regularly and I can only see it breaking down more, and as time moves on it could fall in popularity
TH13TEEN- 2030- I doubt it will go anytime soon as it is both family-friendly and exciting in its way, but I think future free-fall coasters will out do it and it will no longer be as unusual
Oblivion- 2038- I think after it hits 40 years they might start considering building something new
Air and Nemesis - I imagine these 2 will be removed sometime after 2040- they are both strong rides and it is difficult to imagine AT removing either of them anytime soon. Although, it is inevitable and they will have to go eventually, but it's impossible to predict when

[rhino18]

^C'mon really?

You put a date on it then

You say 2020s right? So lets see then. For example, Corkscrew was a cheap, off-shelf Vekoma travelling ride. That lasted 28 years. It wasn't built to last. Rita on the other hand, was an £8 million investment. Rita, as we all know, has hardly any theming, so the vast majority of that £8m budget went into the ride itself. Nemesis, for example, was £10m altogether. £5m went into the coaster, £5m into the theming. Anyway, an £8m Intamin (one of the world's best in quality) Accelerator coaster was built to last. It is also very popular. Average queue lengths at peak times are about an hour and Rita's hardly got slow throughput.

Basically, what I'm saying is that, even if Rita may go first, it will almost certainly not be decommissioned within 15-25 years of operation. Maybe after 35, yes.

So I think around 2035-2040, AT may start to consider 'end of life' plans.

[lf2001]

I'm sure Air will go first. It doesn't fit into the theme of Forbidden Valley, and  Nemesis is more popular.

[rhino18]

^Seriously, just because 'it doesn't fit in with the theme', it also doesn't mean that AT will get rid of a hugely popular (possibly more so than Nemesis), £12m 'world's first' investment.

[Danny]

I honestly think Rita will go first. All other biggies are world's firsts or the best coaster in the world. I would probably see Nemesis going before Air though

[Burniel]

(possibly more so than Nemesis)

Show of hands.

Anyone prefer Air to Nemesis?